I can think of a ton of times when I doubted myself and came to the wrong conclusion. It hasn't costed me $5 mill, but I've learned enough to know that going with your gut is something that can at least lead you to a swim with pigs on the beach.
In respect to our vacation, the point was originally to see a festival, but why we were going down was because we wanted to have fun. So no matter how we did it, we would be happy.
Find “Y” and solve for happiness.